has external London development reversed the trend of housing prices?

are new commuter links like HS2 reducing capital appeal?

housing prices fall in the south.

house prices uk
house prices uk

As property values fall by 1.9% in London,[1] Yorkshire has seen a rise of 3.6% and Scotland 3.3%. This trend is reflected across the country in Northern Ireland, Wales, East Midlands and slightly lower at 1.3% in the South West.

House prices in the South East and London remain the highest and are considerably more than the North East. With an average price of £463,000 in London, £318,000 in the South East and £123,000 in the North East, there is still a long way to go to see any dramatic shift in pricing.

But nonetheless, pricing continues to fall displaying a cultural and economic shift in the market.

A hot property market in the Midlands and North West is propping up the UK's overall picture and this, together with declines that have so far not been dramatic in London, show property is still the relatively safe long-term investment it has always proved to be." 

Lucy Pendleton [Founder Director - James Pendleton]

Huge investment is currently being pumped into the property sector to build new estates, housing and developments across the country. As London becomes overpopulated new builds are popping up on previously un-owned land, in large open spaces. Constant contract work and a need for skilled labourers with new technology in builds for faster and better built housing is filling the job market in construction, property and engineering.

living outside the city.

The promise of green pastures, open air and cheap land is becoming ever more popular as overall pricing drops and value for money increases. However, if all the jobs are in London and you need to commute, is it possible to live outside the city?

high speed rail train randstad
high speed rail train randstad

HS2 linking London to the North.

One new development planning to help solve this dilemma is the High Speed Rail network from London to Birmingham 2026. By connecting a direct line from the capital to external large cities and almost halving the commute time, it becomes more and more feasible to work full time in London whilst paying cheaper rent or owning a house over 100 miles away.

In 2033 when HS2 expands to include Leeds and Manchester, even a journey from Glasgow or Yorkshire with the lowest housing prices would still only be a few hours from London. Obviously not everyone wants to commute multiple hours per day, but a more connected landscape helps the job sector able to source more people more effectively from all over the country.

rising prices could equal London.

A statement like that sounds bold when there is a 300k difference between the cheapest and most expensive locations, but with a sharp trend of rising house prices and London already so far ahead, as someone looking to buy does this all just mean higher entry prices to buying a house?

If it is possible to easily commute to London without living there, suddenly the low value for money becomes less attractive, and unless you truly love the experience of city living, moving just outside could save thousands. However, new housing developers aren't blind to this, and you could easily expect housing in Birmingham with a direct train to London to suddenly increase, and a ripple effect as more and more commuting stations utilise the high speed networks.

brexit uncertainty!

You may be watching the latest Brexit news in the UK, trying to keep up to date on whether you should or shouldn’t buy a house before Brexit, after Brexit. It’s all too much to question in one sentence. And that’s the problem with uncertainty and making the right move, or knowing when that is. We know that over a third of EU nationals have considered leaving the UK due to Brexit, due to a potential job in construction projects.

uk housing prices 2018 / 2019
uk housing prices 2018 / 2019

Housing prices continue to stall primarily in London as the rapid increase in value has leveled out recently, the steep curve we saw in 2013 that kicked off the housing price boom wavering, causing constant searches of ‘housing prices london’ watching the figures but not yet buying.

housing prices reach equilibrium…

A potential look into the future could eventually see, by the time our technology of transport increases, commuting times decrease, and wireless connectivity becomes more reliable and faster, housing could equalise.

If there is no longer an economic benefit to living in London, why would you pay more to live there if you could live in the more open spaces of Luton or Oxford and the surrounding towns?

This all sounds well until we see potentially the average house price of today at £227,000 (up £3,000 from last year) become an average of £260,000 or even £350,000 as some predict in 2050 as steep trends increase across the country. But now it wouldn’t be offset by ridiculous prices in London vs the cheaper northern areas, instead any house would start between 200k and 300k.

[1] ONS March 2019 Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/march2019